What is the Ballon d’Or, and What’s Different in 2025
- The Ballon d’Or is one of the most prestigious individual awards in world football, presented by France Football. It recognises the best player(s) over the season.
- For 2025, it’s the 69ᵗʰ edition.
- A key detail: the evaluation period is the 2024-25 season. For men, that’s roughly 1 August 2024 to 13 July 2025 (ends with the Club World Cup). For women, the period runs till 2 August 2025 (after the Copa América Femenina)
- Awards given out include not only the main Ballon d’Or (Men & Women) but also related honours: Kopa Trophy (best young player), Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper), Gerd Müller Trophy (top scorer), Coach of the Year (Johan Cruyff Trophy), Club of the Year, and humanitarian awards like the Sócrates Award.
When & Where
- Ceremony date: 22 September 2025, in Paris at the Théâtre du Châtelet.
- Time & how to watch: for instance, in India the broadcast is on SonyLIV.
Criteria: What the Voters Look For in Ballon d’Or 2024
While exact voting weights are not publicly specified, typical criteria include:
- Individual performances: goals, assists, match-winning contributions across all competitions, especially the Champions League.
- Team achievements: league titles, continental/club trophies, national team success.
- Consistency and impact in big games.
- Fair play and behaviour may also be considered.
- For younger players, potential and growth (relevant for Kopa Trophy) matter.
Leading Contenders: Who’s in the Running
From the most recent reports, here are the top names, with strengths and challenges:
| Player | Club / Country | Why They’re Strong Contenders |
| Ousmane Dembélé (PSG / France) | Key favourite. He helped PSG win their first Champions League, in dominating fashion in the final; scored heavily in domestic league; good stats in assists and goals. | Big performances give him the edge. But voters sometimes reward all-round impact (beyond just scoring/assists) or defensive or leadership qualities. Also, competition is stiff. |
| Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain) | A teenage phenomenon. Strong performances for Barça, crucial in several matches; many believe he could become first youthful winner in modern times. | Youth can sometimes work both for and against — while exciting, some voters may prefer more proven consistency or helping in tough games. Also, Barcelona’s European results matter. |
| Mohamed Salah (Liverpool / Egypt) | A very consistent season; contributions in Premier League, Champions League; still among top contenders. | Might lose out if team trophies or final matches are not as strong as others; sometimes goal/assist numbers need to be extraordinary to overcome team gaps. |
| Raphinha (Barcelona / Brazil) | Strong goal & assist tallies; involvement in big matches; part of a team that competed for multiple trophies. | Barcelona’s failure or slip in Champions League or other big matches could hurt; also competition with more headline-grabbing names. |
| Others: Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, etc. | Established names with high expectations; big clubs; high visibility. But may have fewer standout “defining moments” in 2024-25 compared to the frontrunners. |
Odds & What Betters Are Saying
- According to The Independent, the odds have Ousmane Dembélé as the heavy favourite, followed by Lamine Yamal.
- Example odds: Dembélé around 1/3, Yamal ~ 9/4, Raphinha, Salah, Mbappé further behind.
- In media coverage and pundit predictions, there’s a consensus that the Champions League performance (both by player and club) will heavily influence voters.
What Makes This Ballon d’Or Unique / What to Watch
- Strong competition from youth: It’s rare to have a teenage star like Yamal so close in contention. Will the voters reward the young breakthrough or stick with more experienced stars?
- PSG’s success: Their first Champions League win gives their players (especially high performers like Dembélé) a big boost. Team success tends to sway many voters.
- Balance of stats vs impact: Stats are crucial, but clutch moments (big penalties, decisive goals, performances in finals) and overall influence carry weight.
- Women’s Ballon d’Or & equality of honours: The women’s nominations, multiple awards (Yashin, Kopa) etc., reflect increasing parity. Fans will also watch how awards outside just the “Men’s Player of the Year” are handled.
Potential Surprises & Dark Horses
- Some players with fewer headlines but consistent seasons might squeeze into top-positions. Napoli’s Scott McTominay has been mentioned in some rankings.
- Sometimes, players from less dominant leagues or from regions outside the big European clubs get recognised if their international or continental contributions are huge.
- If someone had an outstanding finish to the season (e.g. in Club World Cup, national team tournaments), that could tip the balance.
Predictions: Who Might Win?
Based on what is known:
- Ousmane Dembélé seems the safest bet. Very strong across all fronts (league, Champions League, big matches).
- Lamine Yamal is a serious contender: youth appeal + outstanding performances cannot be ignored. If voters lean toward “future plus present”, he could upstage the favourite.
- Mohamed Salah or Raphinha could be in the mix but probably facing an uphill battle unless one of them had something truly iconic or decisive in the past season that overshadowed others.
Why It Matters
- Winning the Ballon d’Or cements status as one of football’s elite. It often turbocharges market value, endorser interest, and legacy.
- For clubs, having the winner boosts prestige in transfers, sponsorships, global reach.
- For younger players like Yamal, early recognition can shape their career arcs, confidence, and expectations.
Ballon d’Or 2025 is shaping up to be one of the more exciting editions in recent years, with a clash between experience (e.g. Dembélé) and prodigious talent (Yamal). Team success, especially Champions League, will likely make or break chances.
Best guess: Ousmane Dembélé takes it, but Lamine Yamal gives him a run for his money.
